She-Groove Coverage
She hangs out every day near by the beach
Havin' a HEINEKEN fallin' asleep
She looks so sexy when she's walking the sand
Nobody ever put a ring on her hand
Swim to the oceanshore fish in the sea
She is the story the story is she
She sings to the moon and the stars in the sky
Shining from high above you shouldn't ask why
She is the one that you never forget
She is the heaven-sent angel you met
Oh, she must be the reason why
God made a girl
She is so pretty all over the world
She puts the rhythm,
The beat in the drum
She comes in the morning
And the evening she's gone
Every little hour every second you live
Trust in eternity that's what she gives
She looks like Marilyn,
Walks like Suzanne
She talks like Monica and Marianne
She wins in everything that she might do
And she will respect you forever just you
She is the one that you never forget
She is the heaven-sent angel you met
Oh, she must be the reason why
God made a girl
She is so pretty all over the world
She is so pretty all over the world
She is so pretty
She is like you and me
Like them like we
She is in you and me
She is the one that you never forget
She is the heaven-sent angel you met
Oh, she must be the reason why
God made a girl
She is so pretty all over the world
(She is the one) She is the one
(That you never forget) That you never forget
She is the heaven-sent angel you met
She must be the reason why
God made a girl
She is so pretty all over the world (oh...)

Some say love, it is a river
that drowns the tender reed.
Some say love, it is a razor
that leaves your soul to bleed.
Some say love, it is a hunger,
an endless aching need.
I say love, it is a flower,
and you its only seed.
It's the heart afraid of breaking
that never learns to dance.
It's the dream afraid of waking
that never takes the chance.
It's the one who won't be taken,
and the soul afraid of dyin'
that never learns to live.
When the night has been too lonely
and the road has been to long,
and you think that love is only
for the lucky and the strong,
just remember in the winter
far beneath the bitter snows
lies the seed that with the sun's love
in the spring becomes the rose

随着美联储降息，中美利率正式倒挂，加之美元疲软，不是什么好兆头……另外下面这篇文章很不错，对于过去一年内发生的一件大事作了简要的分析，嗯，大师果然不一样。索罗斯对reflexivity的坚持（这单词实在不知道怎么翻译），在之前接受wsj采访的时候就提到过，大概就是市场，尤其是金融市场会不断地趋向偏离，不存在什么所谓的均衡，与西方经济学的根底基本是背道而驰的说法。however，菲尔普斯最近也说过这样的话，貌似还要编到教材里去。如果经济学作研究的话，这算个不错的方向。

THE WORST MARKET CRISIS IN 60 YEARS 
George Soros Wednesday, January 23, 2008 
The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years.

 

However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

 

Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point. The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case.

 

Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism. Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit.

 

Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

 

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility.

 

Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks' commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war.

 

Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

 

Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

 

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management
 

今天最令人快乐的事情，应该就是买到回家的票。如果说平时不知道对于家的思念有多么深厚，买票时焦急的心情应该能说明一定问题，只是，真的很冷。Anyway,29号就可以回家了，很开心，也希望在我之后回家的各位能买到一张回家的通行证。最近忙考试忙到昏天黑地，接连几个星期没休过周六周日，所以这两天基本就在补觉。昨天晚上看了超级星光大道的总决赛，Yuming得到冠军我很开心，虽然有很多人说这一届怎样怎样，但这个结果也算对得起我啦！签一签，发一发好啦！希望Yuming可以和美珍在一起，尽管感情这事情外人不该随便揣测。这两天都很欣慰的看到我亲爱的老公，无奈托福课开了就没那么多时间了。开始打算回沈阳之后要见哪些人，嘿嘿，开心中……

貌似有人介绍一些人给冯同学认识，无端心慌，maybe it’s time to move on.

买了三盆植物，粉色，蓝色，白色各一株，还未开花，希望不要被我养死……传说中的风信子。

有些事情不在掌握之中，时间就是其中之一，有些人随着时间流逝，地点变换，就会一同远去，但是还留在身边的人，值得用尽全力珍惜。